# shell.build GTM strategy v3 (draft)

> **Status:** draft for owner review, 3 Nov 2026. This replaces `docs/gtm-strategy.md`, which has been removed from the repository. v2 is preserved collapsed at the bottom for comparison.
>
> **Evidence labels:** **verified** means checked in the repository or this session; **assumption** means a hypothesis to test; **unknown** means no decision yet.

## 0. What changed since v2

These are the product changes the strategy must now reflect:

- **Simulation is permanently removed** (commit `98245bd`). The simulator, robot builder, scenes and build instructions are gone. The product runs programs on physical boards only.
- **Firmware flashing is being removed.** Boards are pre-flashed and update over the air through the firmware protocol. In-app program upload stays.
- **Hardware is spec/design only.** `cad/DESIGN.md` is a draft. There is no prototype build, manufacture or inventory plan yet.
- **Hardware buying is waitlist-only.** There is no checkout, deposit or preorder.
- **The main repository stays private.** The `shellbuild/hardware` repository is private and has no licence; making it public is a separate decision.
- **The product surface is broader than v2 assumed:** collaboration, versions, notes with image attachments, PWA/desktop shell and a remote MCP server already exist.
- **Projects currently have one program.** Named program files with one active program are planned; version history is project-wide.
- **MCP and the API are for agents and power users**, not a public third-party platform.
- **Public share links are planned as unauthenticated read-only live views.** This is a change from the private-by-default assumption in v2 and needs safety controls.

## 1. Product today (verified)

A browser-native robotics and electronics lab:

- write TypeScript in a Monaco editor;
- upload and run the program on a physical ESP32-C6 board over the shell.build protocol;
- collaborate in real time, save versions, and keep notes with images;
- install as a PWA or use the desktop shell;
- connect an agent over MCP for read/write project access.

There is no simulator, no in-app firmware flashing and no purchase flow.

## 2. Thesis

**Lead with runtime unity on real hardware, not simulation.**

The defensible combination is:

1. **One TypeScript program and one runtime model** that runs on the board, with no local toolchain and no compile step for the user.
2. **A classroom-grade collaboration and teaching layer** that developer tools do not have.
3. **A no-toolchain browser workflow** that works on the Chromebooks schools already own.

The old “simulate then flash the same file” story is retired with the simulator. The new proof is “write it in the browser, run it on the board, share what you built.”

Status: **assumption** that this is legible and valuable to the target buyer. It needs teacher validation.

## 3. Audience

**Leading hypothesis (carried from v2, needs confirmation):** CTE and robotics-club students aged roughly 13–18, reached through their teacher.

- The **champion** is the teacher.
- The **buyer** is the CTE director, department chair or school administrator.
- Adult makers and independent developers are an acquisition channel and a source of project examples, not the primary customer.

**Decision:** the beachhead stays **CTE/robotics-club teens reached through their teachers**. Adult makers remain a channel, not the primary customer. The landing page should be written for the teacher champion and the student experience.

## 4. Offer and buying

**Verified:** hardware is waitlist-only. There is no payment, deposit or checkout.

The near-term offer is therefore:

- a free browser editor and project library;
- a hardware waitlist that measures demand;
- design-partner conversations with teachers;
- no paid hardware or software commitment until the waitlist and design partners justify it.

**Assumption:** the first revenue should not depend on self-manufactured hardware. v2 already argued against inventory in year 1; that still holds.

**Unknown by decision:** software pricing, school vs individual tiers, and whether hardware is sold by a partner or by shell.build. Keep pricing explicitly open; do not publish a pricing ladder.

## 5. Acquisition

Keep one engine for the first six months:

1. **Teacher design partners** — a small number of classrooms using the product and giving feedback.
2. **Hardware waitlist** — demand validation, not a revenue stream.
3. **Examples and share links** — curated projects plus unauthenticated read-only links give teachers something concrete to send to colleagues.
4. **A small set of canonical SEO pages** — hand-written, truthful pages for the actual product. Do not scale thin comparison pages.
5. **The build gallery** — only after moderation, reporting and minor-safety controls exist.

No conferences, paid ads, affiliate programme or district sales in the first phase.

## 6. Proof and demo

The 60–90 second demo should be:

1. open a curated example in the browser;
2. connect a pre-flashed board;
3. upload and run the program;
4. change the code and run it again;
5. open a read-only share link.

Do **not** show a simulator, a firmware-flash button, or a checkout.

## 7. Pricing

**Unknown.** Do not publish a pricing ladder yet.

The only pricing claims allowed on the site are the waitlist terms that actually exist. If the page says “reserve” or “charged when your kit ships”, that must be removed unless the owner opens a real preorder.

## 8. Risks

- **Onboarding without simulation.** A browser-only demo used to be the top of the funnel. Without it, the waitlist and examples have to carry more weight.
- **Firmware update path.** Removing flashing shifts responsibility to pre-flashed boards and OTA. If OTA is not ready, a board with old firmware is a dead end.
- **Hardware dependency.** Hardware is spec-only, so the software must stand on its own until boards exist.
- **Public share links and minors.** Unauthenticated live links need revocation, rate limits, noindex by default and a reporting path.
- **Private repository.** The community cannot inspect or contribute to the main codebase; the public hardware repo is the only open surface.
- **Trust.** Several old claims (simulation, flashing, purchase) are now false. Every page must be audited.

## 9. First 90 days (draft)

1. Confirm the audience and recruit 2–3 teacher design partners.
2. Review the hardware draft; keep it spec-only until the open electrical decisions are settled.
3. Make the pre-flashed-board onboarding path work end to end and ship OTA firmware updates.
4. Rewrite the landing page to the physical-board story; remove simulator, flashing and purchase claims.
5. Ship read-only public share links with safety controls, then use curated examples as the first public projects.
6. Instrument the funnel: waitlist signup, project created, program uploaded to a board, share link viewed.

## 10. What we will not do (year 1)

- No simulator or “simulate then flash” positioning.
- No in-app firmware flashing.
- No checkout, deposit or preorder until the owner decides.
- No self-manufactured hardware or inventory.
- No public third-party API.
- No district sales, conferences, paid ads or affiliate programme.
- No public student projects without moderation, reporting and noindex defaults.

## 11. Open questions for the owner

- Is the CTE-teen-via-teacher audience still correct?
- Is the first revenue software, hardware, or a partner-fulfilled kit?
- What is the pricing model, if any?
- Which hardware partner/fabricator, if any?
- Does the main repo ever become public?
- What is the minimum OTA path needed before hardware can be sold?

---

<details>
<summary>Original v2 strategy (historical)</summary>

# shell.build — Go-To-Market Strategy (v2, post-review)

> **Update (Oct 2026):** the simulator has been removed from the product. The
> simulate-then-flash positioning below is historical; the platform now runs
> programs on physical boards only.

> **Status:** v2, 12 Oct 2026. v1 was put through three independent reviews (a startup red-team, a K-12 procurement/teacher review, and a positioning/growth review). This version fixes the critical findings. Numbers are labelled **verified**, **estimated**, or **assumption**. Full source notes live in v1's appendix and the research streams; this doc keeps only decision-relevant detail.

**Product:** shell.build (currently shipped under the `shell.build` domain) — a browser-native robotics + electronics lab. Users wire a circuit, write real JavaScript/TypeScript, simulate it, and flash the **same program** to a physical ESP32-C6 over USB (Web Serial, no toolchain). Offline-first, collaborative; classroom features on the roadmap.

**Founder context:** solo indie developer. Everything below is sized for **one person, limited capital, no sales team**.

---

## 0. What the review changed (read this first)

| v1 claim                                                          | Verdict from review                                                                                                                                                                                     | v2 position                                                                                                                                                                |
| ----------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| "Nobody owns simulate-then-flash; it's our moat."                 | **False.** micro:bit/MakeCode has simulated and flashed the _same_ program for years, free. Cirkit Designer already ships sim → "upload firmware to real hardware." Wokwi flashing is one release away. | Demote sim→flash to the **demo**. Re-anchor on **runtime unity** (one JS/TS file, one shared runtime, sim _and_ silicon, no toolchain) + the **classroom/pedagogy layer**. |
| Two P0 beachheads: teens + adult JS devs.                         | Split focus; adult devs are a **channel**, not a customer.                                                                                                                                              | **One beachhead: CTE / robotics-club teens (13–18) via their teacher.** Makers = acquisition channel + project-library supply.                                             |
| "Graduation" narrative vs competitors.                            | Condescending, derivative, and promises an unshipped classroom.                                                                                                                                         | Identity/outcome narrative. No competitor-referential public copy.                                                                                                         |
| Hardware kit is early revenue.                                    | Riskies move for one person; the plan argues against it internally.                                                                                                                                     | **No self-manufacturing in year 1.** Partner-fulfilled / white-label packs only, after a paid classroom cohort.                                                            |
| Six-tier pricing ladder.                                          | Pre-PMF over-complexity; internally arbitrageable.                                                                                                                                                      | **Four live rungs.** Kill Pro year 1; don't publish district pricing.                                                                                                      |
| Public shareable student projects = #1 moat.                      | Collides with minor-safety/compliance.                                                                                                                                                                  | **Default private**; anonymous handles; moderation, reporting, rate limits before public pages.                                                                            |
| "Insurance is the #1 blocker."                                    | Incomplete: entity/PO/W-9 blocker is **earlier**; accessibility is a **live legal gate**.                                                                                                               | Add entity/PO prerequisite; add WCAG-blocking gate; add cyber insurance.                                                                                                   |
| Teacher-first sales.                                              | Right for _adoption_, wrong for _buying_ — teachers rarely cut a software PO.                                                                                                                           | Separate **champion (teacher)** from **buyer (CTE director / dept chair)**, with district privacy review running in parallel from day one.                                 |
| Two channel engines.                                              | 3+ FTE of work; will not be executed.                                                                                                                                                                   | **One engine for months 0–6.** Second engine demand-gated.                                                                                                                 |
| SEO: programmatic glossary + comparison hub + calculators + i18n. | Over-scoped; thin pages are being eaten by answer engines.                                                                                                                                              | **5–8 hand-written canonical pages** + the **user project gallery** as the programmatic engine.                                                                            |

**The single most important correction:** the workflow is _not_ unique, but the **combination of (a) one TypeScript file that runs unchanged on a shared browser/device runtime with no compile step, and (b) an education-grade pedagogy + classroom layer that the developer-simulator rivals do not have** is defensible. Lead with that, not with "simulate-then-flash."

---

## 1. The honest thesis

**What is genuinely differentiated (defend these):**

1. **Runtime unity.** `sb-runtime` runs the same JS/TS source in the WASM browser simulator and on the ESP32-C6 firmware (QuickJS on-device), with shared tests proving the starter program works on both. This is a language/toolchain unification, not a flash button — it is the one thing a competitor cannot copy in one release.
2. **Education-grade pedagogy UX.** Every rival is a _developer_ tool (Wokwi, Velxio, Cirkit) or a _toy_ (Sphero, VEX). Progressive disclosure from first blink to typed TypeScript + collaboration is the under-served gap.
3. **Classroom/collaboration layer.** Offline-first, collaborative editing, sharing/roles already exist in the product; a no-account classroom primitive + assignments is the layer Wokwi/Cirkit don't have for 13–18.

**What is NOT a moat (use as demo/proof, never as the defence):**

- Browser simulation (crowded: Wokwi, Velxio, Cirkit, Crumb).
- Browser flashing over Web Serial (**commodity**: ESP Web Tools, ESP Launchpad, FlashESP, ESPConnect, `esptool-js`).
- "Simulate then flash the same file" as a _workflow_ (micro:bit already does it in K-12; Cirkit already does it for developers).

**Contingency:** assume Wokwi (or Espressif) ships Web Serial flashing within 12 months. If that happens, the pre-committed reposition is: runtime unity + curriculum + teacher network + classroom collaboration — never "we can also flash."

---

## 2. Positioning & unique market position

### 2.1 Positioning statement

> **For CTE/robotics teachers and their 13–18 students**, shell.build is the **no-toolchain hardware lab** where **one TypeScript file runs unchanged in the browser and on a real ESP32-C6** — simulated, shared, and flashed from a Chromebook — **wrapped in a classroom layer and curriculum that developer-simulator tools don't have**. Unlike Wokwi (simulate only, developer-first) or micro:bit (fixed board, blocks-first), shell.build teaches **breadboard electronics and real typed code** on real hardware.

### 2.2 Category

Pick **one** noun. Recommended: **"one-file physical computing"** (or "the no-toolchain hardware lab for the classroom"). Do not chain two category labels; the audience must be able to repeat it in one breath.

### 2.3 Narrative (identity/outcome, not "graduation")

- "Real code, real electronics, on real hardware — from a browser tab, on the Chromebook you already have."
- "Write it once. Simulate it. Flash it. Same file, no toolchain."
- "The hardware lab that fits in a tab."

### 2.4 Proof points (the demo + the substance)

1. **The 60–90s demo:** wire → Run (sim) → Flash over USB → real LED blinks. _(Verified: the product's default project is exactly this LED-blink flow, so the hero asset matches the shipped product. Keep it that way.)_
2. **Guest, no-signup editor** with that pre-wired project.
3. **Offline-first + Chromebook-native**, no install, no admin-rights journey (with an honest supported-devices page).
4. **Typed JS/TS**, not blocks — answers the CTE "blocks aren't real programming" objection.
5. **Same runtime both targets** — the technical proof behind "same file."
6. **"Sim vs real: known differences" page** — pre-empt the inevitable "the motor jittered on the real board" moment and neutralise a Wokwi-accuracy attack. Honesty is a differentiator.

### 2.5 Counter-positioning (private map, not public copy)

Wokwi → workflow/hardware/K-12 fit, never "better simulator." Tinkercad → continuation into real hardware. Arduino → better front-end to the same class of silicon; offer ESP-IDF-compatible export. micro:bit → **never** claim it doesn't simulate; position on typed code, arbitrary circuits, ESP32 as the "next board." VEX/Sphero → electronics vs driving. LEGO → durable software where code outlives the kit. Cirkit/Velxio → "they built a developer simulator; we're building the classroom."

---

## 3. Beachhead & buyers

### 3.1 One beachhead

**CTE / robotics-club teachers and their 13–18 students on Chromebooks.** Everything in year one points here.

| Role            | Who                                            | What they do                                                                | Not their job             |
| --------------- | ---------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------- |
| **User**        | Student (13–18)                                | Uses the tool                                                               | **Does not buy.**         |
| **Champion**    | CS/CTE teacher, robotics coach                 | Pilots free, gives feedback, becomes a reference, writes the pilot proposal | Rarely cuts a software PO |
| **Buyer**       | CTE director / dept chair / pathway lead       | Controls program-of-study budget; approves the first real PO                | —                         |
| **Gatekeepers** | District IT/CIO + privacy officer + purchasing | Veto on devices, data, process                                              | —                         |

**Makers (adult JS/TS devs, hobbyists) are a channel, not a segment:** they supply the project library, credibility and content, and occasionally a Pro-style donation — but the business is not built on them.

### 3.2 Explicit year-one non-targets

K-8/PK-3 (needs a Blockly layer), higher-ed/industrial sim, iPad/Safari-only classrooms (simulate-only fallback), district direct sales, IoT/fleet buyers.
**Brand surface:** run the school-facing identity separately from the hobbyist surface if reviewer caution holds (consider `shell-build`/edu vs `shell.build`) so the school brand doesn't read "hobbyist tool."

---

## 4. Product readiness & gating

### 4.1 Hard gates before public beta

- [ ] Guest, no-signup editor with a runnable LED-blink project.
- [ ] **Flash reliability across Chrome/Edge on Windows/macOS/ChromeOS**; `flash_started/succeeded/failed` event taxonomy + diagnostics on failure. _(Today only 5 project-lifecycle events exist — fix before launch.)_
- [ ] **Supported-devices + Web Serial test page** (helps IT, not just teachers).
- [ ] 3–5 one-click example projects; shareable links; fork/remix.
- [ ] **"Sim vs real: known differences"** + per-component compatibility matrix.
- [ ] **Child-safety baseline:** projects **default private**, anonymous handles, report/report flow, moderation queue, rate limits, no PII in public corpora.
- [ ] **WCAG 2.2 AA on the guest editor + `/teach` + lesson pages** (keyboard-operable wiring, non-colour state cues, captions, focus management) — a _documented-gap ACR is a district veto_.
- [ ] Landing-page honesty fix: mark unbuilt Classroom/School tiers "coming soon / join the beta."

### 4.2 Hard gates before classroom beta

- [ ] No-account classroom join (class code / join-by-link) **as the default free experience**.
- [ ] Lightweight teacher view (student projects), not a full LMS.
- [ ] Google + Microsoft SSO; Google Classroom roster import (note: sensitive-scope OAuth verification takes weeks).
- [ ] Signed DPA + state exhibits (CA AB 1584, IL SOPPA, NY Ed Law 2-d at minimum); retention/deletion policy + named data-protection contact; COPPA posture updated for the **Apr 2026 amended rule**.
- [ ] **One complete 6–9 week pathway** co-authored with 3 teachers — including answer keys, rubrics, a **no-hardware substitute track**, and **IEP/504/ELL scaffolds** — aligned to CSTA 2026 (incl. Physical Computing), ISTE, NGSS ETS1, and the teachers' **state CTE standards**.
- [ ] Cyber + general liability insurance and a vendor packet (see §8).

### 4.3 Explicitly deferred (demand-gated)

Clever / LTI 1.3 / OneRoster (build SSO → ClassLink → OneRoster → LTI before _school #2_, not school #50), SOC 2, org/class/assignment domain model, self-manufactured hardware, billing beyond the first paid SKU.

---

## 5. The offer (year-one scope)

**Year one offers exactly two things a user can do, and exactly one thing a buyer can buy.**

1. **Free tool (forever):** simulator, guest editor, projects (default private; opt-in public with moderation), 1 device, 1-flash-at-a-time, community support. This is the acquisition engine.
2. **Free teacher pilot:** 3–5 design-partner classrooms, free for the school year in exchange for feedback + a testimonial + outcome data. **Grandfather them in writing.**
3. **One paid SKU, demand-gated:** a **classroom pack** (class-sized board set + storage + the 6–9 week curriculum + a classroom licence), sold **via PO / DonorsChoose / reseller**, not self-manufactured (see §7.3).

### 5.1 Pricing ladder (four live rungs)

| Tier                                                                                                    | Price                                                                                | Notes                                                                                                    |
| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| **Free**                                                                                                | $0 forever                                                                           | Simulator + guest editor + private projects                                                              |
| **Classroom**                                                                                           | **~$249/yr per teacher** (covers _all_ their sections/students)                      | Kills the $199/35-seat arbitrage; easy PO. To validate. Beta classrooms grandfathered free for 12 months |
| **Classroom Pack**                                                                                      | **~$1,200–1,500 via PO** (class-sized: ~25 boards + 5 spares + storage + curriculum) | The first paid SKU; partner-fulfilled. CPAs _supplies_ budget, not SaaS                                  |
| **Bundle**                                                                                              | Classroom + Pack                                                                     | Best conversion                                                                                          |
| _Later (do not advertise):_ School (by enrollment band, monotonically lower per-seat), District (quote) |                                                                                      | Gate behind references + SSO/OneRoster + DPA + ACR                                                       |

**Kill the Pro tier in year 1** (or make it a pure "supporter" donation with no gating) — it competes with free Wokwi and cannibalises the funnel.

### 5.2 Why this prices correctly

- Free incumbents (Tinkercad, MakeCode, micro:bit classroom, Wokwi Community) anchor the simulator at $0 — **so we never sell "a better simulator."** We sell **saved teacher time** (curriculum, assessment, classroom workflow) and **hardware**.
- The pack is priced ~25–35% of hardware-first classroom kits (Ozobot Evo 12-pack $2,050; Sphero indi 8-pack $1,500) with a class-sized unit — a strong budget story.

---

## 6. Revenue model, viability target & kill criteria

### 6.1 Viability target (the thing v1 was missing)

- **Founder must clear ≥ $3k/mo gross profit by month 12, and ≥ $8k/mo by month 18.** If not met, execute the pivot: (a) drop hardware entirely and sell **curriculum + classroom software** only; or (b) raise/park the project. **Kill date: month 18.**
- This is stated up front because v1's own model (~$73k software ARR at month 24) does not by itself fund a founder; **hardware/curriculum gross profit must lead early, software must compound.**

### 6.2 Reality check (assumptions, labelled)

Free signups 1k→4k/mo; 4% free→paid; ~90 classrooms and ~15 school sites by month 24; hardware packs 10→40/mo. Under these assumptions software ARR ≈ $22k (mo 12) → ~$73k (mo 24); cumulative hardware/curriculum GP ≈ $61k → ~$265k. **Treat every input as a placeholder with a validate-by date; set real targets from the first cohort.**

### 6.3 Bottom-up market model (replaces v1's unfalsifiable TAM)

- **US secondary CS/CTE teachers** × realistic ACV (Classroom + occasional pack) = the serviceable market we can actually reach.
- **Classrooms we can personally reach in 12 months** (teacher network + conferences + content) × pilot→paid conversion = year-1 target.
- Cite **one dated primary source per number**; drop the "$1.15–6.5B" range from decision-making (keep it as context only).

### 6.4 First 10 paying customers (who, channel, price, date, what must be true)

1–3. **Pilot teachers → paid packs** (channel: direct; price: ~$1,200 PO; by month 6; _must be true:_ pilots produce a measurable outcome + a quote).
4–6. **DonorsChoose-funded kits** (channel: DonorsChoose via a US vendor listing; ~$800–1,000; months 5–9; _must be true:_ US vendor/entity + a sub-$1k project).
7–8. **Robotics clubs** (Hack Club / FIRST teams; channel: community; ~$1,200; months 6–10; _must be true:_ club budget or sponsor).
9–10. **CTE department PoCs** (channel: reseller on an existing co-op/state contract + Amazon Business PO; months 9–12; _must be true:_ champion + dept budget + insurance).

---

## 7. The growth loop & channels

### 7.1 One loop (this is the engine)

**Embeddable live simulation + public remix gallery.**

- Every public project gets an indexable URL with **fork/remix**.
- Every project can be **embedded** (`<iframe>` / "Built with shell.build" badge) in docs, blogs, forum answers, course pages — a permanent, self-serve acquisition surface (Wokwi's real distribution edge).
- After `flash_succeeded`, prompt a **"share your build"** artifact.
- **Value stays on-platform** via mandatory attribution/backlinks so a fork credits the original.
- **Loop metrics:** published-projects rate, **forks-per-project**, **embeds-per-project**.

### 7.2 One channel engine for months 0–6 (Engine A only)

| Channel                               | Play                                                                                                             | Realism                                                            |
| ------------------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| **Content + docs-as-marketing**       | Event-driven (not weekly-cadence) build-to-flash videos; fortnightly technical posts; docs with tryable examples | Highest ROI; compounds; plays to founder's Rust/Effect/TS audience |
| **GitHub + awesome lists**            | README + GIF + one-command demo; PR to `awesome-esp`, `awesome-esp-rust`, `awesome-esp32`, education lists       | Free, durable                                                      |
| **Show HN** (one shot)                | Link the _editor_, be present hour 1                                                                             | Median 2 points — a lottery ticket, not a plan                     |
| **Hackaday / Hackster / hackaday.io** | Project page for the board + curriculum                                                                          | High-signal editorial                                              |
| **Embed/gallery**                     | See loop above                                                                                                   | The compounding surface                                            |

**Cut from year 1:** weekly video _cadence_ (make it event-driven), Product Hunt _same-week-as-HN_ (stack the wave instead), cold Reddit outreach, **BETT/FETC travel** (a vendor cannot attend on free educator passes — see §8.6), Amazon/Tindie/Shopify storefronts, paid YouTube, and i18n.

### 7.3 Hardware, de-risked (no self-manufacturing year 1)

- **Primary SKU = a class-sized pack**, partner-fulfilled: white-label/curate a **pre-certified ESP32-C6 board** through a distributor or reseller, or run a **Crowd Supply/pre-order that only bills at MOQ**. Do **not** buy inventory or certify your own PCB in year 1.
- Use **native-USB (USB-Serial-JTAG) ESP32-C6 boards** so no CH340/CP2102 drivers are needed on locked-down labs.
- Avoid Li-ion batteries (skips UN38.3) and don't market as an under-14 toy (skips CPSIA/EN71). If/when you self-manufacture, use the pre-certified module ("Contains FCC ID") → Part 15B SDoC (~$1–4k), plus a **per-market CE/UKCA/RoHS/REACH/WEEE matrix** if shipping outside the US.
- **Hardware channel = PO / DonorsChoose / reseller**, not DTC singles (DTC is secondary).

### 7.4 Deferred second engine (demand-gated, on strong signals)

Teacher newsletters (Ditch That Textbook ~150k; expect crowded/sponsored, earn it _after_ one documented pilot), CSEdWeek/Hour of AI (Dec 7–13) as top-of-funnel, CSTA chapters, a 3–5 teacher design-partner cohort, Hack Club. **No conference booths in year 1.**

---

## 8. Education motion (champion ≠ buyer)

### 8.1 The ramp

**Stage 0 self-serve** → **Stage 1 teacher pilot (0–6 mo, free, parallel IT/privacy review)** → **Stage 2 school PO via the CTE director/dept chair (3–12 mo)** → **Stage 3 district (not year 1)**.

- **Champion:** teacher (pilot, reference, writes the proposal).
- **Buyer #1:** CTE director / dept chair (program-of-study budget).
- **Gates in parallel from day 1:** IT/CIO (device policy), privacy officer (DPA/state law), purchasing (process).

### 8.2 Prerequisite before the first paid PO

- **Form a US entity (or appoint a US reseller/merchant-of-record).** Districts pay by PO to a legal entity with a W-9; a foreign sole trader's W-8BEN breaks many AP systems. This is a **60–90 day critical-path item**, not a detail.
- GL **and cyber** liability insurance issued to that entity; PO/invoicing + tax-exempt workflows; vendor registration (PaymentWorks/Bonfire-style).

### 8.3 Compliance, sequenced as gates

- **Accessibility:** DOJ ADA Title II web rule → **WCAG 2.1/2.2 AA by 24 Apr 2026 (large districts) / 2027 (small)** — already live. A drag-and-drop circuit canvas, Monaco, and colour-only state are hostile to assistive tech; budget **real engineering**, publish a real conformance report.
- **Privacy:** **COPPA amendments effective ~22 Apr 2026** (retention policy, separate consent) — keep under-13 as school-managed but specify it; **state exhibits (CA AB 1584, IL SOPPA, NY Ed Law 2-d)** pre-signed; district privacy review runs **in parallel with the free pilot**; any rostered feature = PII, so "no-account" is not a privacy shield once names exist.
- **Regional:** year-1 classrooms **US-only**; add UK/EU GDPR-UK + AU Privacy Act + VAT/GST before selling there. Don't book BETT travel for sales you legally can't close.

### 8.4 Grants & funding (corrected)

- **DonorsChoose:** US-vendor-only, favours **sub-$1k tangible** projects; watch 1.5× match offers. A kit is a better ask than a subscription.
- **Perkins V:** **not a teacher/vendor grant** — it flows to the district/college via the state plan and local **CLNA**; align to a program of study. Pitch the **CTE director**, not the teacher.
- **ClassWallet:** primarily **ESA/education-savings** (largely private/homeschool), **not** a district procurement channel. Get listed, but don't count it as the school path.
- **Toshiba America Foundation** (6–12 up to $5k rolling), PTA/PTO mini-grants, Title IV-A via the district. **ESSER is gone — never reference it.**
- **The realistic no-sales-team district path is a reseller that already holds a cooperative/state contract** (Sourcewell/E&I/TIPS/OMNIA/AEPA) + **Amazon Business PO** — not a grass-roots PO and not chasing co-ops yourself.

### 8.5 Resellers

Approach as **sell-through**, not competitor: you supply product + curriculum + PD; they supply PO/insurance/fulfilment. Expect ~**20–40% off list** + ~10–20% distributor margin; price so ~30% off still profits. Candidates: Studica, SparkFun Education, School Specialty, CDW-G/Insight/Bluum, Amazon Business; get the kit listed with a **DonorsChoose-approved vendor**.

### 8.6 Conference/PD corrections

A vendor **cannot** attend BETT/FETC on free educator passes (educator-verified). Year 1: skip booths; if you attend, budget a paid/exhibitor pass or send a teacher ambassador. PD is the **primary adoption lever** — ship a lightweight **recorded** PD + teacher-led cohort, not district PD.

---

## 9. Content & SEO (right-sized)

- **5–8 hand-written canonical pages first:** `/`, `/simulate-then-flash`, `/simulator`, `/alternatives/wokwi`, `/learn/javascript`, `/teach` (+ `/about` with founder/Person schema, + `llms.txt`).
- **Then the user project gallery is the programmatic engine** — user projects generate the long tail; only build `/docs/glossary/*` once **one** template proves it ranks and converts.
- **Cut** calculators, `/compare/*`, i18n, video cadence until evidence.
- **Technical:** SSR is already on; generate the sitemap at build; keep Monaco/three/rapier off marketing routes; add `Course`/`HowTo`/`FAQPage`/`VideoObject` schema; HSTS.
- **Prioritise AI-citation** (unique data, real screenshots, code, honest comparisons) over keyword density.
- **Brand blocker:** unify on one name, **301 aliases**, own the brand SERP **before** the Show HN moment.

---

## 10. Defensibility (re-ranked)

| Rank  | Moat                                                                            | Why it holds                                                            | First move                                                                     |
| ----- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | ----------------------------------------------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ |
| **1** | **Runtime unity** (one JS/TS file, shared runtime, sim + silicon, no toolchain) | Hardest to copy — needs on-device JS runtime + rewritten toolchain      | Ship ESP-IDF/PlatformIO export + a second target (RP2040) to prove portability |
| **2** | **Curriculum + teacher network**                                                | Trust, slow to copy; the true institutional moat                        | One complete 6–9 week pathway, teacher-reviewed                                |
| **3** | **Student work history / switching costs**                                      | A teacher's lesson sequence + a student's multi-year history don't move | Versioned projects, portfolios, teacher replay                                 |
| **4** | **Community & brand**                                                           | Free incumbents won't build it for K-12; new entrants haven't           | Discord + 10 teacher ambassadors                                               |
| **5** | **Project/remix graph (with attribution)**                                      | Compounding loop, but only if value stays on-platform                   | Public gallery + embeds + mandatory backlinks                                  |
| **6** | **Telemetry/autofix**                                                           | Aggregate sim-failure modes → best-in-class diagnostics                 | Instrument `flash_failed` → fix taxonomy                                       |
| **7** | **Open component ecosystem + CAD interop**                                      | Data asset; publish the schema to a neutral venue                       | Define the schema; ship 25 quality parts                                       |
| **8** | **Portable firmware / vendor independence**                                     | Insulates against Qualcomm-Arduino and Espressif vertical integration   | Abstract the board layer                                                       |

**Platform hedges:** stay vendor-neutral; make files/firmware exportable; be the pedagogy layer, not the silicon layer.

---

## 11. Metrics & behavioural validation

**Activation = first successful flash** (not "project created"). KPI set:

1. Guest→`flash_succeeded` rate.
2. Published-projects rate; **forks-per-project**; **embeds-per-project**.
3. Teacher→class-code creation rate.
4. Kit attach rate among activated flash users.
5. D7/D30 return of _hardware owners_ (the truly sticky cohort).

**Behavioural experiments (replace interviews):**

- **Sim-on vs sim-off control:** serve the plain "browser editor → flash" path to a slice; measure activation/return. _If sim usage doesn't predict flash/return, re-point the thesis at no-toolchain text code + classroom._
- **Fake-door kit pre-order page** to test willingness to pay before any inventory.
- **A "$50 flash-a-real-board" challenge with Hack Club** to measure organic forks/shares.
- **Tripwires:** <N flash successes by day 90 → fix before any launch; <Y teacher LOIs by day 120 → narrow the wedge.

---

## 12. Risks & tripwires

| Risk                                      | Severity | Mitigation                                                                                        | Tripwire                                                              |
| ----------------------------------------- | -------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| Wedge neutralised (Wokwi/Espressif flash) | Critical | Lead on runtime unity + classroom; pre-committed reposition                                       | Any incumbent ships Web Serial flash → shift messaging within 2 weeks |
| Solo capacity                             | Critical | One engine; publish a **weekly hours budget** (60% product / 20% content / 20% pilots); hard cuts | Any cadence promise missed 2× → cut the channel                       |
| Hardware cash/ops                         | Critical | **No self-manufacturing year 1**; partner fulfilment                                              | Any inventory commitment before 10 paid classrooms → stop             |
| Minor-safety incident                     | Critical | Private-by-default, moderation, reporting, rate limits before public pages                        | Any PII/abuse report → lock public surface                            |
| Entity/PO blocker                         | Critical | US entity or US reseller as prerequisite (60–90 days)                                             | No entity by month 3 → hardware/PO motion blocked                     |
| Accessibility veto                        | Critical | WCAG 2.2 AA on core surfaces as a gate; real ACR                                                  | District accessibility review fails → block classroom beta            |
| Free incumbents cap pricing               | High     | Revenue = hardware + curriculum, not simulator                                                    | Free→paid <2% for 3 months → re-price                                 |
| Sim vs real divergence                    | High     | "Known differences" page + compatibility matrix + diagnostics                                     | A class-visible sim-pass/hardware-fail → pause claims                 |
| Brand confusion                           | High     | Unify + 301 + own brand SERP before launch                                                        | 2 names still live at launch → block launch                           |
| Web Serial locked by MDM                  | High     | Native-USB boards; IT checklist; Safari simulate-only path                                        | Flash fails on managed Chromebook → fix before classroom promise      |

---

## 13. Calendar & 90-day plan

**Phases:** Private beta (now) → **Public beta (Nov 2026)** → **Classroom beta (Feb 2027)** → **1.0 (Jun 2027, ISTELive)**. _(Fixes v1's contradiction.)_

| When     | Moment                                  | Action                                                            |
| -------- | --------------------------------------- | ----------------------------------------------------------------- |
| Nov 2026 | Public beta                             | Show HN + Hackaday/Hackster; gallery + embeds live; brand unified |
| Dec 7–13 | **CSEdWeek / Hour of AI**               | Free classroom activity as top-of-funnel                          |
| Jan 2027 | **FIRST kickoff (9 Jan)**; back-to-code | "Robot brain in a browser" for the beachhead; AU/UK new year      |
| Feb 2027 | **Classroom beta cohort 1**             | 3–5 classrooms; ship on feedback                                  |
| Apr–May  | District budget season                  | Prep (not sell); publish beta case study                          |
| Jun 2027 | ISTELive 27                             | **1.0**; submit a session (no booth)                              |
| Jul–Aug  | Summer PD; back-to-school               | One complete pathway; teacher-led PD recording                    |
| Sep–Oct  | AU/UK new year; robotics season         | Partner a club; board pack via PO/reseller                        |

**First 90 days (strict top 5 — nothing else):**

1. Guest, no-signup editor + reproducible `flash_succeeded` on all three desktop Chromium OSes, with diagnostics.
2. The embeddable project gallery + share/remix + "share your build" artifact (the loop).
3. Child-safety + accessibility baseline on the public/editor surfaces.
4. Unify the brand + own the brand SERP + the honesty fix on the landing page.
5. 3 teacher design partners signed and running; funnel instrumentation live.

---

## 14. Budget & capacity

| Item                                   | Est. cost (year 1) | Notes                            |
| -------------------------------------- | ------------------ | -------------------------------- |
| Hosting/domain/analytics               | $0–50/mo           | Cloudflare/PostHog               |
| Video/content                          | $0–500/mo          | Founder time                     |
| Pilot kits (3–5 classrooms)            | ~$1.5–3k           | Partner-fulfilled, not inventory |
| Entity + insurance (US)                | ~$1–3k             | Prerequisite for PO revenue      |
| Legal (DPA/state exhibits skim)        | ~$1–3k             | One-off                          |
| **No conferences/booths/sponsorships** | $0                 | Year 1                           |

**Owner:** founder for product, curriculum, standards maps, compliance docs, outreach, pilots, first 3 references. **Delegate/buy:** legal review, hardware fulfilment, PD at scale, rostering integrations.

---

## 15. What we will NOT do (year 1)

No district direct sales; no cooperative-contract chasing; no Clever/LTI/OneRoster before school #2; no district PD; no self-manufactured hardware or inventory; no Tindie/Shopify/Amazon/paid-YouTube/conference booths; no i18n; no six-tier pricing; no public student projects without safety controls; no "we're the only ones who simulate-then-flash" claims.

---

## Appendix — Open questions for the next review

1. Is the **runtime-unity** story legible enough to a CTE teacher, or does it need a teaching-facing metaphor?
2. Is **$249/yr per teacher** the right first software price, or should software stay free until hardware/curriculum proves the willingness to pay?
3. Should the **US entity** be formed now (cost/commitment) or should a **reseller be merchant-of-record** instead?
4. What is the smallest **6–9 week pathway** that still saves a teacher real time?
5. What exactly is the **pre-committed reposition** if Wokwi ships flashing — and how fast can we execute it?

</details>


<sub>Generated on _MrBeast_ using _opencode/deepseek-v4.1-flash_ in _ses_e8326e581ffeJviTmSkomwnKES_</sub>